At Pollenizer we have a different way of doing things. While it’s in our DNA to dream big, we put a strong focus ensuring that we follow the critical steps to get there.
Most of the time these critical steps come in the form of experiments, which drive our decision making process. For us, there is no such thing such as “truths”, but a set working hypothesis that we are desperately trying to translate into facts.
In this post I’ve outlined a set of rules for implementing effective hypothesis statements. You can use this method to validate your business model, streamline your sales channel, nurture your business culture or even develop your professional career. Once this tool is under your belt, there is no stopping you from applying it anywhere.
Rule 1
A hypothesis represents what you strongly believe about your internal and external customer.
Rule 2
It falsifies an underlying assumption of the business through a formal test.
Rule 3
It maps to the lean canvas.
Rule 4
The test shouldn’t conduce to self-fulfilling or leading answers. There is nothing worse than validating what you already know, or asking customers what they think they know, but don’t.
Rule 5
It defines a success criteria based on key business metrics.
Rule 6
The success criteria is always an educated guess of what you think will be a desired outcome. It’s like drawing a line in the sand.
Rule 7
The bar for the success criteria should always be set high.
Rule 8
Validation or invalidation of hypothesis should start by the one that is risky enough to make the whole business fall apart.
Rule 9
New insights that emerge during testing reinforce previously valid/invalid hypothesis, or creates a new hypothesis altogether. After validation, record the learning and establish what is next in terms of experiments. New data might affect other assumptions in your Lean Canvas.
Rule 10
All problems have a solution, but not all solutions have a problem. Don’t run a solution test if you don’t have a valid problem hypothesis first.
Problem-Solution Fit (Example: Airbnb)
- Hypothesis 1
Travelers have bad experiences because photos in marketplace platforms look different than reality. - Canvas
Problem - Test
Question: When was the last time you had a bad experience when renting an Apartment or BnB service online? What were the top 3 causes? - Expected metric
80% of respondents indicated that misleading pictures led to a major disappointment.
- Hypothesis 2
Customers sign-up to service due to a good quality of photos in inventory of houses. - Canvas
Solution - Test
Take 10 beautiful images of apartments that accurately represent the rental experience. Make them visible from landing page.
Push through a channel and A/B test.